Alfonse D'Amato

Road to White House stops in key state of . . . New York?

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The presidential campaign has reached a crucial, potentially make-or-break state, and believe it or not, it’s New York. For the first time since 1988, New York is hosting a meaningful presidential primary for both the Republican and Democratic parties. Last week, Donald Trump and Gov. John Kasich came to Long Island and were met by thousands of their respective supporters.

The Wisconsin primary, on April 5, gave Senators Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders a momentum few political observers saw coming. It also made very real the possibility of a brokered, potentially drama-filled Republican convention. But to me, what happened in Wisconsin wasn’t totally surprising. The media hyped the results to give them way more shock value. Trump’s statements on abortion didn’t help him in the Badger State, but he was never going to win the primary there, so it’s hard to say if they were the deciding factor. On the Democratic side, Sanders will still have a very difficult time catching Hillary Clinton, especially when you add in the superdelegates.

Trump still holds a lead in the Republican race for delegates, with 746 pledged delegates to Cruz’s 510 and Kasich’s 145. Cruz may be feeling good after Wisconsin, but all signs point to Trump doing very well in the Northeast, with primaries coming up in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

I foresee a brokered convention doing great damage to the Republican Party. If the party denies the nomination to the candidate who has come closest to winning the majority of delegates, Republicans will likely alienate the people who supported him. Think about it. If neither Trump nor Cruz pulls out a convention win, and an establishment candidate, like Mitt Romney or House Speaker Paul Ryan, rides in on a white horse to supposedly save the party, what will Trump’s and Cruz’s supporters do? They represent millions of voters who comprise the Republican base. How will they feel if the nomination is taken away from their candidate?

I don’t see any good side to a brokered convention. Every scenario I think of is an ugly one.

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