Jerry Kremer

With the conventions wrapping up, we get down to it

Posted

Last August I wrote a column about the campaign for the White House and the efforts of Donald J. Trump to win his party’s nomination. Knowing that we’re living in uncertain times, I did not dare to predict that he wouldn’t get the Republican Party nomination. As I am frequently wrong, according to my wife, I still think I can analyze the next three-plus months and make a prediction.

The Republicans were in the spotlight at their convention last week, and this week it's the Democrats' turn. Trump was expected to get a slight bounce in the polls, and no doubt Hillary Clinton will get a boost from the Democratic event. The two conventions were likely to be as different as night and day, and therein lies the clue to what I think will happen in November.

On TV, the Republican convention looked like a typical campaign rally, mostly white people. Of the 2,000-plus delegates, there were only 20 black representatives. There might have been a few Hispanics in the building, but they weren’t visible on your home screen. All in all, a snapshot of the crowd looked no different than a GOP rally 50 years ago.

The speeches were primarily anti-Clinton. I didn’t hear anything new about her, because Republicans have been using her for a punching bag for the past 25 years. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie attacking Clinton, and asking for the audience to chant “Guilty!” reminded me of a Roman emperor who signaled thumbs down for the unfortunate guy in the arena and the crowd followed along.

The Democratic convention promised to be a lot more positive. Unlike Trump’s event, there were dozens of well-known public figures, including President Obama, set to sing Clinton’s praises. Second, as much as the Democrats detest Donald Trump, he was not expected to be the center of attention. Faced with a ton of bad press, the job of the Democrats was to humanize their candidate, and not hang Trump in absentia.

The difference between the two conventions was, in part, why the November results will mirror the mood of the two party meetings. The Republican convention was a nasty affair. Speaker after speaker denounced Clinton, which was to be expected. But what about the economy? Education? Homeland security? Our relations with the outside world? Over four days, other than red meat for the hungry delegates, nothing was said that would woo voters who are on the fence to support Trump.

At least the Democratic convention planned to give voters a feel for the issues and where the Democrats stand as a party. I know that most of the media coverage up to now has been about Trump’s attacks on ethnic groups and women, but shouldn’t we start talking about the future of America under a new president? Does Trump really have a clue about the burdens of the Oval Office?

Beyond the fallout from both events, let’s look at some of the states that are important to both candidates. Ohio is a so-called swing state. It is doubtful that the Republicans there, led by Gov. John Kasich, will be burning the midnight oil to get Trump elected. They may sit on their hands or vote for Hillary. But Trump isn’t their priority. It will be close in Ohio, but Trump is no sure thing.

New Mexico, a must-win state for Trump, is still hurting from his assault on Mexicans and his attack on the state’s Hispanic — and Republican — governor, Susana Martinez. Voters of Hispanic origin won’t be voting for Trump just because he treats his employees nicely. You can say the same about Arizona, where John McCain is the senior senator. Trump’s attack on McCain, saying that a captured military officer is no hero, will play a role in the final results.

There are so many places and people that have already been turned off by Trump. But the big issue in any campaign is voter turnout. There’s no doubt that a large number of white people will come out for Trump, but you can’t win an election without troops on the ground, computerized staff operations and the big bucks that it takes to win. Trump has none of those things. So I think the voters will tell Trump, “You’re fired!”

But to hedge my bet, I am looking at a condo in Toronto.

Jerry Kremer was a state assemblyman for 23 years, and chaired the Assembly’s Ways and Means Committee for 12 years. He now heads Empire Government Strategies, a business development and legislative strategy firm. Comments about this column? JKremer@liherald.com.