Before the punishing winds blow

Long Island is due for at least an indirect hit by a hurricane, and the prime time for one is just a few weeks away.

The Island feels the effects of a major ocean-borne storm nearly every three years. The last occurrence was in 2008, when tropical storm Hanna brushed New York City and Long Island. Last September we dodged a bullet when Hurricane Earl took a turn to the northeast, leaving us with beautiful beach days instead of disastrous storm damage, and it’s just that kind of a near-miss that leads residents to become complacent and fail to plan for the day when the destruction will come.

And it has come. Since 1856, Long Island has been hit by 12 hurricanes, six rated as Category 1, one Category 2 and five Category 3’s — major hurricanes with devastating damage — according to the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State University in Massachusetts. The worst storm to ever hit this area was one called the Long Island Express, in September 1938. It was responsible for some 700 deaths and the destruction of 4,500 homes. The millions of dollars in damage the storm left in its wake would be many billions today. The Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944, Hurricanes Carol and Edna in 1954, Donna in 1960, Gloria in 1985 and Bob in 1991 have all wreaked havoc on Long Island.

The most likely time for a storm to approach us? According to the experts’ statistics, it’s between Sept. 14 and 20. And although the GeoGraphics Laboratory gives Nassau County only a 1.1 percent chance of being hit during the remainder of the 2011 season, which ends Nov. 30, almost any storm has the potential to develop into the “big one.” We may not be able to accurately predict it, but that’s precisely why the advice the experts offer always makes so much sense: be prepared.

Put together a hurricane kit, make a plan and stay informed, the Red Cross advises.

Before a hurricane hits
• Pack a first aid kit, batteries, cell phone charger, a camera for photos of damage, rain gear, food and water.
• Make a list of emergency contact numbers.
• Make copies of your house and car keys as well as important documents.
• Store plywood and sandbags for boarding windows and preventing water damage.
• Know your community’s evacuation route.
• Determine the location of your local shelter.
• Make a plan for your pets.
• Have cash on hand.

As a storm approaches
• Pack a personal bag (clothes, toiletries, medications).
• Fill your vehicle’s gas tank.
• Bring in items that can be picked up by the wind.
• Turn off propane tanks and unplug household appliances.

As New Orleans learned so tragically during and after Hurricane Katrina, the full impact of a major storm is unforeseeable. But extensive research makes clear the potentially devastating consequences of a hurricane hitting Nassau County.

According to the New York State Office of Emergency Management, a Category 1 storm surge — an abnormal rise of ocean and bay waters — would affect part or all of Long Beach, Island Park, Oceanside, Valley Stream, Hewlett, Lawrence, Cedarhurst, East Rockaway, Baldwin, Freeport, Merrick and Seaford. A Category 3 storm surge would reach into Rockville Centre, Bellmore, Lynbrook and Massapequa.

Using the computerized program SLOSH (for Sea, Lake and Overland Surge from Hurricanes), the National Hurricane Program concluded: “In a Category 4 hurricane, John F. Kennedy International Airport would be under 20 feet of water, and seawater would pour through the Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels and into the city’s subways throughout lower Manhattan.” While this sobering prediction does not estimate casualties, the NHP report described a “heavy loss of life.”

We simply must never forget that we are in the hurricane danger zone.
To learn more, contact the Red Cross at (516) 747-3500, or visit http://liprepares.com.