The ups and downs of the teachers’ job market

Second of two parts.

Last time I introduced the ups and downs in the teacher job market. Not long ago, I warned that a dangerous teacher shortage was on the horizon; now, we’re talking about cutbacks, layoffs, and the difficulty of getting a teaching job.  What’s the story?

In that column, we looked at the volatile history of the job market over the past 40 years. What factors have contributed to the radical changes in the supply and demand?

(1) Birth rate:  There have been periods with a spike in the number of babies being born, followed by downturns with far fewer new students enrolling in schools. One colleague bemoaned that, in her school, the number of classes on the grade peaked at five, dropped to four, and is now just three.  Elementary schools are being combined or closed, obviously impacting the demand for teachers.

(2) The private sector:  The job market is also tempered on the supply side. First-year teaching salaries don’t come close to competing with six-figure salaries in some professions. As I’ve frequently said, teaching offers intrinsic rewards that money can’t buy. But try telling that to young people fresh out of college with humongous loans to repay.  How do you equate a starting salary of about $40,000 with $100,000+ offers, plus commissions and bonuses? The recent shortage of math, science, and technology teachers can be attributed to jobs in industry, which gobble up grads as quickly as colleges can turn them out.  Now, however, with the current economic downturn and layoffs in the private sector, teaching looks more appealing. 

(3) Second incomes:  Also a function on the supply side is the decision of new mothers to return to work earlier than planned. They would have preferred to extend child-care leaves, but returning to work has become a financial necessity. As the pool of prospective candidates swells, competition for the reduced number of openings becomes even more intense.

(4) Retirements: How long teachers remain is also a function of the economy.  As mentioned last time, mass excessing in the 1970s was followed by a wave of retirements — which opened up positions for aspiring teachers.  It could happen again.