Thursday, October 1, 2026
Is this the year of the blue wave? Will it be a modified one or a total rout? Is there any chance of a red wave? Not likely. But, once again, we are facing a year in which the U.S. House of Representatives, and perhaps the Senate, are up for grabs, and the early odds favor the party that’s out of power.
We often refer to political prognosticating it as “reading the tea leaves.” But tea leaves are no longer the best way to pick winners and losers. There are now so many more sophisticated ways to handicap the races, some of which we have been used for years and others that are brand new. The media is dominated by daily polling announcements, and if you give the polls any credence, they spell bad news for President Trump and the candidates of his party.
Poll after poll, whether from the left or the right, seem to indicate that this may be a very bad year for Republicans. You know that things look bad for them when Fox News consistently announces polls showing that everyday Republicans and independents are slowly moving away from long-favored party candidates. In addition, well-known commentators such as Megyn Kelly and Tucker Carlson are predicting only bad things for the party come November.
The newest form of political projections is occurring on such outlets as Kalshi and Polymarket. On Kalshi, people trade contracts on the outcome of real-world events. They are deep into gambling on sports events, but lately have also been involved in betting on political events. Polymarket is built on a crypto platform. People bet on “yes” and “no” shares that reflect the feelings of the bettors and their inkling to pick winners. Both platforms have become highly controversial. Demands are being made for them to be regulated by Congress, but that won’t happen soon.
If you want to find more reliable trends, pay attention to what’s going on in Washington and around the country. This year, more than 30 Republican members of the House have announced that they won’t seek re-election. Some are campaigning for Senate seats and others are running for governor, but the vast majority of the retirees have announced that they’re eager to spend more time with their families, the age-old excuse to get out of Washington.
At last count, there were 35 House seats up for re-election that were tilting toward the Democrats. If the blue wave is really going to happen, most of those seats will go to the Democrats. In 2025 the party won major races in Virginia, New Jersey and New York. This year, a number of Democrats have had upset wins in races for state House seats in districts that Trump won in 2024 by wide margins. If these victories are any indication of the national trend, it’s all bad news for the Republicans.
Up to a few months ago, there was little or no talk about Democrats having any chance to take over the U.S. Senate, but the latest polls seem to show a tightening of the races in Maine, North Carolina, Texas and Ohio. If Democrats can pull off any upsets in these key states, Jon Ossoff can hold on to his seat in Georgia and a newcomer can win in Michigan, the party’s chances of capturing the Senate will improve remarkably.
One of the more disturbing factors for Republicans is the fact that Trump hasn’t made any strong statements about his desire to see his party stay in power. He is promoting various ideas about how they can win at the ballot box, but any federal effort to take the power to oversee voting away from the states will likely be struck down as unconstitutional.
Having reached an advanced age, I’ve seen many waves, both red and blue. They sometimes last two years, and occasionally continue for four years. The swings back and forth between parties are part of the ups and downs of politics. So if it turns out that the Democrats have a great year, they’d better handle their newfound power very carefully, because two years can pass very quickly.
Jerry Kremer was a state assemblyman for 23 years, and chaired the Assembly’s Ways and Means Committee for 12 years. He currently chairs the Capitol Insight Group, a government relations firm. Comments? jkremer@liherald.com.
