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Modeling: 110,000 could be hospitalized in N.Y.; 16,000 could die


 New modeling shows New York could reach the “apex” of the coronavirus crisis, when 110,00 New Yorkers could be hospitalized, with 37,000 on ventilators, at the end of April. Some 16,000 could die.

That’s according to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, speaking Wednesday afternoon.

There is a range of possibilities, Cuomo noted. The 110,000/37,000 figure assumed New Yorkers engaged in what he called “moderate,” or low, social distancing. If they were to follow a stricter regimen, he said, hospitalizations could be as low as 75,000 patients, with 25,000 on ventilators, at the peak of the crisis.

The state is preparing for the peak, Cuomo said. “In this war, we must plan forward for the next battle — the apex,” he said. “The next battle is on top of the mountain,” referring to the top of the curve when new cases have reached their highest point before dropping.

Right now, New York has 83,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases, with 12,226 patients hospitalized. Some 6,000 patients have been discharged from the hospital, the governor said.

County Executive Laura Curran said Nassau now has 9,500 coronavirus cases. Overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday, 13 new deaths were reported here, bringing the total to 76.

 New York has more than four times the number of reported COVID-19 cases than the state with the second highest total — New Jersey, which has 18,000 cases. California has 8,500 cases.

Cuomo discussed whether he thought it possible to reopen the economy following the peak, if cases, and deaths, were to persist into June and July. He said he did believe it was possible, noting that rapid tests, which are now in use at a handful of locations on Long Island, including East Meadow, could be used to ensure that those returning to work were free of the virus.   

Curran said worshippers will have to find new and innovative ways to celebrate the upcoming religious holidays of Passover, Easter and Ramadan. And she said NICE Bus is now operating seven days a week on a Sunday schedule.