By Scott Brinton
Statistically, last Tuesday's election could have gone to either candidate -- Republican David McDonough or Democrat Steven November, both of Merrick, said Patrick Hoey, adjunct professor of political science at Nassau Community College.
McDonough squeaked past November by 254 votes in an election in which more than 10,600 ballots were cast. That equates to a 2.4 percent margin between the candidates.
"It was a random outcome," said Hoey of Bellmore. "Those 254 people who voted could have changed their minds at the last minute."
For pundits like Hoey, the outcome speaks to the inroads that Democrats have made among Nassau County voters -- and the lingering discontentment that residents feel toward the Republican Party.
Once, the 19th Assembly District was considered a sure bet for a Republican candidate -- with the GOP enjoying a nearly 2-to-1 voter-registration advantage.
Then came 1999. Nassau County's burgeoning fiscal crisis angered both Democratic and Republican voters -- and caused many Republicans to cross party lines when voting.
For decades, Hoey said, Republicans "habitually" cast their ballots for Republicans. 1999 broke that habit for them, he said.
That means Democrats today stand a chance of winning seats in traditional GOP territories, such as the 19th Assembly District.
In short, when McDonough runs in the general election this coming fall, as he plans to do, he will face a stiff challenge by whomever is named the Democratic candidate.
And, Hoey believes, the race for the 19th District could very well go to a Democrat in November.
The Democrat-controlled state Assembly has redrawn Assembly district lines, as it must do every 10 years. In reshaping the 19th District, the Assembly took out Island Park -- a GOP stronghold and home town of former U.S. Sen. Al D'Amato -- as well as part of Freeport where Hempstead Town Councilwoman Angelina Cullin, a Republican, lives and enjoys popularity.
At the same time, the Assembly included in the district parts of Roosevelt, Uniondale and south Wantagh, all of which are considered Democratic areas. Now, the full state Legislature must approve the redistricting plan, and the governor must sign off on it.
"If I were McDonough, I wouldn't sign any long-term leases in Albany, not yet," said Hoey.
November said he doesn't plan to run for the 19th District in the fall -- at least "not at the present time."
He said, "The district is being redrawn. We're going to take a look at it.
"Personally, I wish Mr. McDonough well.... I surely hope he does not disappoint and he does the job."
November said he garnered such a high percentage of the vote because "people are tired of the purveyors of a corrupt system," referring to GOP rule in Nassau County.
County Legis. David Denenberg of Merrick is a Democrat who won election to the Legislature in what is considered a Republican district. Denenberg, who ran for state Assembly in the 19th District before the county Legislature, said last Tuesday's special election was by no means "devastating" for Democrats, despite the loss.
The 19th District, he said, "has never been something in contention. The fact that it was so hotly contested is an indication how far Democrats have come in making it a competitive, two-party system."
