By Andrew Coen
With the Democrats holding a 10-9 edge in seats in the Legislature, just one race could swing control back to the Republicans. One seat on the South Shore that Republicans think they have a chance of picking up is the 7th Legislative District seat held by Jeff Toback (D-Oceanside). The Republicans have tapped Jeff Katz, an attorney from Lawrence, in a bid to unseat the incumbent.
Katz, a former Democrat, changed affiliations last year after throwing his support behind President Bush's re-election campaign. Katz said he backed Bush's staunch support for Israel and strongly agreed with his stance on national-security issues. Katz hosted a "Democrats for Bush" Fourth of July fund-raiser, and also helped organize a rally in support of Bush and local Republican candidates at Congregation Sons of Israel in Woodmere before the November election.
Hempstead Town Councilman Anthony Santino (R-East Rockaway), a Nassau County Republican spokesman, said he feels Katz will be a strong candidate and have a legitimate shot to knock off Toback. "We think that's definitely a race where we have a good chance to pick up a seat," said Santino. [Katz] is a multi-faceted guy with a great intellect and a great sense of the issues in the Five Towns."
Santino said Katz is a strong candidate because of his ties to the Five Towns area, which makes up a majority of the 7th L.D. "The vast majority of [the district] is composed of the Five Towns, and it would make sense to have someone from that area represent it," said Santino.
Santino also said he could see the controversy surrounding the Oceanside Motel hurt Toback, because he was accused of overstepping his role as legislator last year in an effort to shut the building down. Toback said the issue of the motel, considered an eyesore in the Oceanside community for many years, will not be on the minds of voters come November. "The Oceanside Motel issue is not even on the radar screen," said Toback. "That was just a political attack."
Jay Jacobs, Nassau County's Democratic Committee chairman, said he does not consider Toback's seat vulnerable. "I think [Toback] will have a pretty easy time with it," said Jacobs.
Katz could not be reached for comment.
The 7th district includes the Five Towns, Barnum Island, Bay Park, East Rockaway, Harbor Island, Island Park, Oceanside and South Valley Stream.
Voting record
Since first winning his seat on the Legislature in 1999 with an upset victory over Presiding Officer Bruce Blakeman, Toback has won re-election twice. In 2001 he won a second term over Republican challenger Merik Aaron of Woodmere by a vote of 9,156 to 5,645, and in 2003 he received 58 percent of the vote in defeating North Woodmere civic activist Mara Jacobowitz, 6,094 to 4,393.
Toback said that the accomplishments he is most proud of include fighting for new affordable apartments in Inwood and the initiative he has undertaken to raise the legal age to buy cigarettes from 18 to 19. "It's been a busy six years, and I'm hoping the voters will return me so I can continue the work I'm doing," said Toback. "I think my record is good across the board for the people of this district."
4th District
While Republicans see a potential pickup in the 7th District, Democrats see a chance to regain a seat, if they win back the 4th District against first-term Legislator Denise Ford (R-Long Beach). While no candidate has officially been named to face her, Jacobs said he would love to see Long Beach City Councilman Denis Kelly run for the post. Kelly is known for being an independent Democrat who crossed party lines to support Republican candidates for the City Council in 2003. "He'd be a very strong candidate and is very reform-minded," said Jacobs. "I think the voters in Long Beach are looking for a reform-minded candidate."
Warren Vegh, a member of the Long Beach Public Library's Board of Trustees, said he is exploring the possibility of challenging Ford, which could lead to a Democrat primary if Kelly also decides to run.
Jacobs said he sees Ford, who was a Democrat and a Suozzi supporter before she defeated incumbent Democrat Michael Zapson in 2003, as beatable, since she has consistently voted with the Republican bloc during her time in Mineola.
Whoever is picked to run against Ford, Santino said he expects a close race because of the district's large number of registered Democrats. But Santino said he expects the incumbent to win in the end. "We have a special candidate with Denise Ford," he said. "She's really done a great job."
The 4th District includes Long Beach, Lido Beach, Atlantic Beach, Point Lookout and parts of Oceanside and Island Park.
19th District
Jacobs said he sees incumbent Dave Denenberg (D-Merrick) easily winning re-election in the 19th District, despite a recent controversy over the incumbent's arrest for allegedly obtaining illegal signatures and the fact that the district has more registered Republicans than Democrats. Republican officials say that Bellmore attorney Steven Rhoads will challenge Denenberg in November. "I am confident that [Denenberg] will win in a sizable margin, in the high 50s," said Jacobs.
Santino said he saw Denenberg's arrest as a potential campaign issue that could allow Republicans to pick up the seat. "Certainly it's going to be a question of whether the residents of the 19th District want to be represented by someone who has pled guilty for fraudulent signatures," said Santino. "[Rhoads] is very involved in the community, and he's already out there pounding the pavement."
The 19th District, which Denenberg has represented since winning the seat in 1999, includes the communities of Bellmore, North Bellmore, Merrick, North Merrick and parts of Freeport and Wantagh.
3rd District
Democrats see a potential pickup in the 3rd District against incumbent John Ciotti (R-Elmont). Elmont resident Ali Mirza planned to announce his candidacy on Thursday. "He's a very active Democrat in the area, and I think he could run a good race," Jacobs said of Mirza.
According to Jacobs, the district, which includes Elmont, Franklin Square, North and South Valley Stream, Bellerose Terrace and South Floral Park, is beginning to lean more toward the Democratic Party, which could make Ciotti vulnerable. "That's a seat the Republicans are going to have to work hard to defend," said Jacobs.
Despite the fact that the district has more registered Democrats than in the past, Santino still sees an easy victory for Ciotti. "I think [the Democrats] took their best shot at Ciotti two years ago, and they came up short," said Santino. "We expect a spirited race, but we think [Ciotti] will win."
1st, 5th, 2nd districts
Republican challengers have yet to be announced to challenge Joseph Scannell (D-Baldwin) in the 5th District, Kevan Abrahams (D-Hempstead Village) in the 1st District, or Roger Corbin (D-Westbury), deputy presiding officer of the majority, in the 2nd District. The 1st District encompasses Hempstead Village, Uniondale, Roosevelt, South Hempstead and a portion of Baldwin.
Corbin is running for his sixth term in the 2nd District, which includes East Garden City, East Meadow, Hempstead Village, Hicksville, Lakeview, New Cassel, Old Westbury, Rockville Centre, West Hempstead and Westbury.
It is also not yet known who will challenge Republican incumbents Vincent T. Muscarella (R-West Hempstead) in the 8th District, Norma Gonsalves (R-East Meadow) in the 13th District and Dennis Dunne Sr. (R-Levittown) in the 15th District. Since 1995, Muscarella has held the 8th District seat, which includes Bellerose, Bellerose Terrace, Floral Park, Garden City, Garden City South, Malverne, Stewart Manor, West Hempstead and portions of North Valley Stream.
Jacobs, referring to Gonsalves's seat, said, "I think there is a lot of potential for a Democrat upset in that area."
Dunne will also try for a sixth term in the 15th District, which includes Clear Meadow, East Meadow, Island Trees, Levittown, Wantagh, Poets Corner, Salisbury and portions of New Cassel and Westbury.
According to Santino, the major platform the Republican will run on is high property taxes, controversies over the new property-tax reassessment system and the reduction in the number of police officers in recent few years. Jacobs said he does not think taxes will be an issue, since they have not been raised since 2002. He said he sees the fiscal turnaround under Suozzi, with eight straight bond upgrades and low crime rate in the county, as the issue that will propel county Democrats to victory in November.
The Democrats and Republicans will nominate their candidates in May. Election Day is Nov. 8.
Comments about this story? ACoen@liherald.com or (516) 569-4000 ext. 210.
