By Cindy J. Roth
"It was a frenzy in 1999," said Bill Davis, publisher of Long Island Profiles, which follows real estate sales and mortgage defaults on Long Island. "People bought and they bought like a horse going to water and they got a little saturated. Now it will level off for a couple of years and then go up again."
There were a total of 128 home sales in East Rockaway in 2001. This reflects a yearly growth rate for the past five years of -1.84 percent. One hundred forty-seven houses were sold in 1997, 121 in 1998, 171 in 1999 and 133 in 2000.
The Village of Malverne's yearly growth rate over the same period was -3.85 percent, with 151 homes sold in 1997, 105 in 1998, 150 in 1999, 107 in 2000 and 125 last year.
Lynbrook had a relatively static real estate market during the past five years, with a 0.27 percent growth rate. Last year 267 homes were sold, the same as in 1999 but 17 more than in 2000. In 1997 and 1998, 259 homes were sold.
"It's approximately a five-year span where [the market] goes up, hits a peak and then goes down again," said Davis.
While home sales peaked in 1999, the median price of a home continues to follow an upward curve.
In East Rockaway the annual growth rate of the median home price is 11 percent, and the median home price is currently $276,500. Lynbrook has a yearly growth rate of 12.77 percent and a median home price of $272,000, while Malverne has a 13.85 percent yearly growth rate and a median home price of $315,000.
"Prices have been going up since last Sept. 11," said Davis, who believes that with a shaky economy, people are investing in land, which has continued to increase in value.
Overall in Nassau County, the yearly growth rate of home sales decreased by 2.94 percent, while the annual growth rate of the median price of a home is 11.07 percent. The county's median home price is $285,000.
Local real estate brokers agree, however, that housing is still very much a seller's market.
"When inventory is low, there is a spike [in prices]," said Clementine Becker, a sales agent at Becker Real Estate Services Inc. in Lynbrook. "Low mortgage rates are fueling the market and buyers are much more knowledgeable. Overpriced houses and houses that need a lot of work are not selling. If they're ready to move into, they are selling."
The majority of sellers in the area are older residents looking to downsize or move into retirement villages, divorced couples or people going through job relocations. Becker said the biggest difference she is seeing now is that people who don't have to sell aren't, simply because there's little available to buy.
"Inventory is low," said Becker. "If I had to find a certain house, like a four-bedroom in Lynbrook, I couldn't. A buyer has to be quick."
Home buyers in the area tend to be younger couples looking for first homes. Rosaria Anninos of Cross Roads Realty in Lynbrook said many younger couples are making the move from Brooklyn and Queens. While Anninos agrees that the Long Island market is still strong, she is finding that Nassau County's recent tax reassessments are playing a large role in some people's decisions to move to the area.
"People are talking about it," said Anninos. "It's discouraging people from coming in."
Becker and Davis, however, said the reassessments aren't leading the real estate trends. "It hasn't hit yet because it won't be implemented until 2003 and you won't see it until the first tax bills," said Becker.
"It's like bread and electricity," said Davis. "You have to have it. [People] do fight [tax assessments], but I don't see anyone running out of Long Island if they hadn't planned to already. They'll talk about it and then life will go on."
