Thursday, October 1, 2026
For the past two months, many skeptics of the administration of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani have been anticipating an exodus of residents because of the new mayor’s policies. For now, anyone who tells you that people are leaving New York City in droves is indulging in wishful thinking. But it’s useful to examine Mamdani’s short history to see what he’s doing and whether there are any warning signs ahead.
First of all, it’s worth talking about trends when it comes to people leaving the city and the state. Overall, the state is losing population due to the high cost of living and people’s desire to live in warmer climates. In the case of New York City, the only numbers available to date are from July 2024. At that point the city had gained 87,000 new residents in the previous year, the result, demographers explained, of a combination of an increase in the birth rate and wealthy people from other parts of the world continuing to come to the Big Apple.
The international arrivals are the well-to-do who buy high-cost apartments and buildings. Take a trip to Manhattan’s 57th Street and you’ll find towering buildings with breathtaking Central Park views. New York is a very attractive place for these big-money people who can’t find the kind of attractions they’re seeking in their native countries.
Mamdani has appointed many people who have had previous government experience at the federal and state level. His first deputy mayor, Dean Fuleihan, was my chief of staff in the Assembly when I was chair of the Ways and Means Committee, and the budget director for Mayor Bill de Blasio. Fuleihan is smart, and knows the city’s fiscal issues.
The mayor was fortunate to be able to keep Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch, and she’ll stay as long as he doesn’t meddle in police operations.
The recent snowstorms were a big test for Mamdani, but by the second big storm, last month, the cleanup was a lot smoother. Snowstorms have always been a big deal in the city, and especially since the days of Mayor John Lindsay. After the first major snowstorm of his administration, the city failed to plow any streets in Queens, and that damaged Lindsay’s reputation for years. And de Blasio had a horrific first snowstorm experience when he decided to keep the plows out of key sections of Manhattan.
The most important issue facing the mayor is his multi-billion-dollar budget deficit. Mamdani has suggested that the state allow the city to tax the earnings of millionaires and billionaires, but that proposal has gotten a cold shoulder from Gov. Kathy Hochul, who’s running for re-election this year. In the past few weeks, a number of progressive groups have been in Albany, pushing for that increase, but any legislation that creates such a tax is sure to be vetoed by the governor.
Since the mayor began talking about the deficit, the state has found an extra $1.4 billion that will help the city. One new proposal that would help raise at least another $1 billion is to add more parking meters around the city. That idea might not be very popular, but it’s better than the mayor’s proposed 9.5 percent citywide increase in the real estate tax. There is some support from Albany progressives for the idea, but it would have to get through both houses of the Legislature.
So what will a 34-year-old, first-term mayor have to do to balance the budget? There is such a thing as cutting some expenditures, though that hasn’t been attempted by any recent mayors. The 2025 city budget was an estimated $112.4 billion. Having chaired a legislative fiscal committee, I believe that an honest effort should be made to trim some unnecessary spending in order to persuade the state to help close the city’s budget gap.
At this point there hasn’t been any so-called “Mamdani effect.” There are lots of things that could happen, but so far, so good. When you manage a government as large as New York City’s, however, there are many land mines ahead, any one of which could do a new, young mayor in.
Jerry Kremer was a state assemblyman for 23 years, and chaired the Assembly’s Ways and Means Committee for 12 years. He currently chairs the Capitol Insight Group, a government relations firm. Comments? jkremer@liherald.com.
