Sunday, December 8, 2024
All the way back in the year 1517, Niccolò Machiavelli argued that sometimes it is “a very wise thing to simulate madness.” But what did he mean, and does it have relevance today? Let’s start with a definition.
As quoted in Wikipedia, “the madman theory is a political theory commonly associated with the foreign policy of President Richard Nixon and his administration, who tried to make the leaders of hostile Communist Bloc nations think Nixon was irrational and volatile so that they would avoid provoking the U.S. in fear of an unpredictable response.”
Let’s consider some other well-known examples of this theory in practice:
Libya, under Moammar Gaddafi, had a clandestine program to develop nuclear weapons. In 2003, however, Libya suddenly decided to surrender its program and discontinue further pursuit of such weapons. Did they suddenly develop a conscience? Actually, I would argue that the invasion of Iraq by the U.S. under President George W. Bush scared the Libyans, who feared that Bush was going to invade any country developing these weapons, whether or not there was an actual provocation that would justify it. They thought that Bush was not entirely rational in this regard.
Vladimir Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine if things don’t go his way. As a result, many Western countries put severe restrictions on the Ukrainians’ use of the weapons provided to them by the U.S. and other countries, for fear that Putin would actually do what is considered unthinkable and use his nukes. Throughout his rule over Russia, Putin has cultivated and encouraged the idea that he is unpredictable and could do crazy things. This has worked to inhibit and restrain other countries from acting as they otherwise might in response to Russian aggression.
Kim Jong-un and his predecessors in North Korea have long used the idea that they are crazy and unpredictable to their advantage. They have repeatedly been able to extract concessions from the U.S. in the form of sanctions relief and the provision of food and have been able to develop and test nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver them simply by encouraging the fear that they would restart the Korean War. This despite Western vows that they would never be allowed to have these weapons. Now that they have nukes, and constantly threaten to use them, they have even more leverage. People think they would actually use them.
Now let’s look at today’s international scene and compare it with how things were just a few years ago. President Biden is seen as being weak and fearful of using American power. When he suggests that he would use this power, no one believes it. He says “don’t” to bad actors and they “do.” They’re not afraid of him, and feel free to ignore his warnings.
As a result, we have hot wars in Ukraine and Israel, Chinese aggression in the Pacific and the real and imminent threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The new “Axis” of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea is on the move, creating chaos and the real danger of igniting a third world war.
Contrast this with the situation during the Trump administration. There are those who accuse Donald Trump of being unpredictable and unstable. But consider that this may be by deliberate design on his part. When he tells a foreign leader that he will take action that many would consider dangerous, they believe him.
Under Trump, Mexico became extremely cooperative in controlling the border, Russia didn’t further its Ukraine ambitions and Iran was careful not to allow Hamas or Hezbollah to get out of control. Trump took several actions (think of the destruction of ISIS, and of the take-out of Iranian military leader Qassim Suleimani) that some other leaders might have been afraid to take. The bottom line was that things were positively quiet, compared with today’s chaos.
I would argue that the madman theory is actually a valuable tool that was employed effectively by Trump, and that, if he is elected again, we can entertain the hope that our military will be rebuilt and U.S. deterrence restored.
Howard Kopel represents Nassau County’s 7th Legislative District and is the Legislature’s presiding officer.
