Public school districts across Nassau County are contending with declining enrollment, a trend that is reshaping school operations, staffing, and financial planning. The North Shore, Locust Valley Central, and Oyster Bay-East Norwich Central school districts are responding to this challenge with a combination of demographic studies, program enhancements, and an emphasis on improving the student experience.
According to data from Nassau Board of Cooperative Educational Services, 61 percent of school districts in the county experienced enrollment declines in the last decade. Local administrators, such as Locust Valley Superintendent Kristen Turnow, have been monitoring this shift closely.
“This is a big deal,” Turnow said. “That’s why last year I started talking about this. We need to pay attention. We need to pay attention to what’s going on. Big time.”
Locust Valley has seen a steady decline in student population over the years. In the 2018-19 school year,
the district had 2,034 students. By the 2024-25 school year, that number had dropped to roughly 1,818. Turnow estimates that by 2027-28, the district will have around 1,725 students.
Housing costs have played a significant role in decreasing enrollment in many districts, where. according to the Zillow Home Values Index, the average home was nearly $800,000 last year.
“I went on and looked up housing in our school district — there were five houses on the market for under a million,” Turnow said. “This is a Long Island problem; this is not a Locust Valley problem.”
She cited high property taxes, as well as the home prices, and high interest rates as additional deterrents for young families looking to move into the district. In North Shore, while overall enrollment has remained steady, demographic shifts are occurring.
At Oyster Bay-East Norwich, however, the enrollment drop has not been as steep, which Superintendent Francesco Ianni attributed to the success of the district’s universal Pre-K program as well as developments and improvements in the district’s state and national academic rankings in recent years.
“For us, the enrollment drop has not been as drastic as what I hear from my colleagues in the surrounding districts, but it has been a trend,” Ianni said. “The enrollment is going down a little bit.”
To address the challenges associated with enrollment declines, districts across the county are making strategic adjustments to staffing and program offerings.
Locust Valley, meanwhile, is responding to declining enrollment by enhancing its programs to attract and retain students. Lauren Themis, president of the district’s board of education, emphasized the need to take a “positive and proactive” approach to the situation.
“I think it’s really incumbent upon a district to stay focused on providing their programs, not just for today, but for the future,” Themis said. “We hope that more people will see the value of the educational system here on Long Island, and in Locust Valley in particular.”
The district is expanding its business suite and investing in new academic spaces, including an innovative research center that will accommodate programs like Model UN, mock trial, and DECA, a business and entrepreneurship competition. Additionally, Locust Valley is developing a designated eSports and computer lab, and working with local governments to find ways to get the word out about the quality of the school district.
Ianni emphasized the importance of ensuring that district programs remain competitive and relevant in an evolving educational landscape.
“We need to make sure our students are receiving the best opportunities possible,” Ianni said. “That means aligning our curriculum with the future workforce, ensuring our schools remain attractive to families looking for a strong educational foundation for their children.”
Turnow emphasized that developing these spaces was also crucial to competing with the offerings of nearby private schools. With 123 private schools, religious and non-denominational, across the county, and some of the best such as Friends Academy and Portledge School located on the North Shore, public school districts need to stay competitive academically, athletically, and infrastructurally.
“We’re really working hard with the goal in mind that we want every child to leave us with leaderships skills, whatever that leader may look like in their corner of the world that they’re going to make better,” Turnow said. “We’re trying to create programs that complement each other, and to give students a voice and to give them the self-esteem that they need for when they leave us to move forward in their futures.”
North Shore School District has remained relatively stable, maintaining an enrollment of around 2,500 students. Superintendent Chris Zublionis attributes this to predictable housing turnover and consistent family sizes.
“If you look at the (New York State Education Department) data, you look at the students in senior year, and then you look at the incoming kindergarten, and it’s like half. You can really see it going down,”
Zublionis said. “We’re a little bit of an outlier on Long Island. For various reasons, our enrollment is staying around that 2,500-2,550 mark, which is a great thing.”
Despite declining enrollment countywide, all three districts are conducting long-term studies to anticipate and adapt to future trends. North Shore has commissioned a demographic study to project enrollment over the next five to ten years.
“The stability actually is an advantage,” Zublionis said. “It helps us to plan with less of an unknown, more of a known entity in terms of the staffing we know we need.”
The districts also closely monitor kindergarten enrollment through their Universal Pre-K program, which provides early indicators of incoming class sizes.
Additonal reporting by Luke Feeney
