Preparing for the worst

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And it may come in handy. Basile - along with hundreds of other Five Towns and Atlantic Beach residents - will soon find themselves in need of federal flood insurance.
"I've been [on Peninsula Boulevard] since 1965 and have never seen the water overflow that creek and hit the front of the driveway," Basile said of the creek that runs in the median of the boulevard. "Not until this year. And I didn't just see it once, I saw it three times."
The Federal Emergency Management Agency, acknowledging such environmental changes, has released new Nassau County flood plain maps to replace the current ones, which were last revised about 30 years ago. Homeowners in the Five Towns and across the South Shore are now learning about how the new flood maps will impact them. Many will be required to purchase insurance.
FEMA, which released the redrawn maps earlier this month, has begun a series of public meetings to explain the changes, which may affect 30,000 or more homeowners whose property was not previously included in a flood zone. One meeting was set for Thursday at Nassau Community College in Garden City. Residents and local elected officials have called for meetings to be held closer to South Shore residents, especially those on the Long Beach-Atlantic Beach barrier island.
"Certainly they should be held around here," said Atlantic Beach Village Mayor Stephen Mahler. "We are the people who are the most endangered in Nassau County. This barrier island is the most endangered area in Nassau County."
The expanded zones are deemed at risk of flooding during heavy rain storms, and the updated maps are based on more precise geographic and elevation measurements than in the past, according to FEMA.
FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program requires that homeowners in flood zones who have mortgages show proof of flood insurance, which is underwritten by the federal government. NFIP rates are based on such factors as a property's elevation and whether its structure has a basement.
Homeowners will be able to appeal FEMA's map plan, which the agency expects to finalize by next July. But residents are being warned that the plan may be completed as soon as November, and are being encouraged to buy insurance now, while they can still get it at rates averaging $300 to $500.
"For some people, it's going to hit them hard if they still have a mortgage," said Denis Miller, a flood and home specialist in Long Beach. "And if they don't buy a policy prior to the changing of the maps, they're going to get slammed for $1,500 or $2,000, and they can buy a policy now for $300."
Miller said that in addition to Long Beach, virtually every home in Point Lookout, Atlantic Beach and North Woodmere will now be included on FEMA's flood plain maps.
North Woodmere, which sits near Jamaica Bay, was hit hard by the floods of October 2005, when about 18 inches of rain fell on the area within a few days.
The newly drawn maps don't surprise Mahler, who has been a local spokesman for emergency preparation for the barrier island. "We were always the most endangered area, so it comes as no surprise to us," Mahler said. "I just hope that it doesn't hurt our residents, in the sense that insurance companies ... have always been, and especially in recent years, more and more reluctant to insure here, and I hope that doesn't exacerbate the situation."
Basile, who owns CSA Insurance in Inwood with his wife, Marilyn, said they have received an influx of flood insurance inquiries since news of FEMA's revisions came out a couple of weeks ago. "It has been a little hectic since that flood situation first came out," he said. "I guess people were beginning to realize, especially in this area because we're so close to the water, that this may be a good idea, and it's not a very expensive policy."
Basile encourages homeowners to consider flood insurance even if they don't believe their homes will be affected by the new maps or by actual floods - and he has followed his own advice. "It's still something to consider, because the revision in the early part of 2009, as I understand it, is going to change the flood rates considerably in all classes," Basile said. "We ... know they're not going to go down, they're going to go up."
He noted that if residents get insurance before the revisions take effect, they will most likely be grandfathered in and would keep their lower rates.
Morris Kramer, an Atlantic Beach resident who has studied environmental issues for four decades, said that even a weak hurricane would cause major damage on the barrier island. "A weak four- to five-foot rise in the waters," Kramer said, "like a bathtub slowly filling with water, surrounding Atlantic Beach, from a weak Category 1 hurricane - the weakest category - will cause flooding and damage to nearly every home, breaking doors, windows and flooding the interiors."
Kramer explained that many houses on the barrier island are built on concrete slabs, without basements, and wave action from a direct hit by a Category 1 hurricane could push them off their foundations and into other homes, and cause flooding in every home and first-floor business.
The same goes for Five Towns communities, which would also be affected by higher waves and storm surge. "Now all of this from a weak Category 1 hurricane, which is most likely to strike the area," said Kramer, who noted that FEMA drew its maps with a much stronger Category 3 hurricane in mind.
Since Hurricane Katrina, FEMA has been running a financial deficit, and with the recent massive floods in the Midwest, the agency is expected to pay out many claims that will likely make that deficit grow. But while some homeowners believe the expanded maps are simply a way for FEMA to refill its coffers, others say the agency's plan is not necessarily a reaction to recent natural disasters.
"It's something they started several years ago," said James Callahan, Nassau County Emergency Management commissioner. "New Orleans and the surrounding areas were done before Hurricane Katrina. So they tend to try to redo the maps every 10 years, but it's been a lot of years since they've redone them. So I cannot say it's a knee-jerk reaction because they need money. I would guess that the recent floods had absolutely nothing to do with this."
For more on the current and proposed flood maps, go to Nassau County's Web site, nassaucountyny.gov, and click on "FEMA Flood Map Information" at the bottom of the home page, or call Callahan at (516) 573-0636.
Comments about this story? MCaputo@liherald.com or (516) 569-4000 ext. 201.