By Scott Brinton
"The word is not destruction. It's obliteration," said Nicholas Coch, head of the Queens College Environmental Sciences Department, who has studied hurricanes for a number of years.
When the storm finally waned, it would leave debris mounds up and down the shoreline. Grassy yards would be left as pools of oozing mud. The power would be out for a week or more. And the death rate, Coch said, would be "much higher than anything we've seen."
In short, that was the professor's unnerving assessment of the havoc that a Category 3 hurricane would wreak on Long Island, particularly the South Shore, which would take the brunt of the storm.
Coch spoke last Thursday evening during a hurricane symposium at Calhoun High School, sponsored by Nassau County Legislator David Denenberg, a Democrat of Merrick. Denenberg said the forum was intended not to frighten people, but to give them the vital information they need to protect their families if a major hurricane were to strike the Island. As attendees spoke during the question-and-answer session after Coch's presentation, however, many appeared rattled by the nightmarish scenario the professor envisioned.
Coch likened a Category 3 hurricane up North to a Category 5 storm down South, saying the devastation that a northern hurricane would bring could surpass even what Katrina caused in New Orleans. He noted that when major hurricanes have made it to northern waters in the past, they've moved more swiftly and packed a greater punch than southern storms. Coch estimated that property damage on Long Island would run into the tens of billions of dollars if a major hurricane were to strike.
In a Category 3 storm, the professor said, "The whole island has to be evacuated." He later backpedaled, saying the entire Island could not be evacuated.
Emergency management officials on hand for the symposium agreed that evacuating all of Long Island would be impossible. The Island's 2.8 million residents couldn't get through New York City in time.
If a Category 3 hurricane threatened to hit the Island, police and fire officials would immediately begin evacuating the barrier islands, such as Long Beach, 36 hours before the storm. Coch showed a computer simulation of what Long Beach would look like in a Category 3 hurricane. The entire boardwalk would be underwater.
Officials would also evacuate South Shore residents south of Merrick Road, and in certain areas, south of Sunrise Highway. They fall within what emergency management officials term the "inundation zone"; that is, the area where heavy storm surge from the Atlantic would cause inland flooding.
Coch also said that the North Shore, which has traditionally been considered insulated from hurricanes, would not be immune to a Category 3 storm's devastation. Coch likened a Category 3 storm to a "50-ring circus" that would cause considerable damage wherever it hit. Such a hurricane would likely force North Shore cliffs to collapse, sending many homes crashing into the Long Island Sound.
Denenberg noted, however, that Long Island is not below sea level, as New Orleans is. So, in a Category 3 hurricane, floodwaters would rush across the South Shore, but would rapidly recede after the storm passed, unlike the situation in the Crescent City, where streets have been flooded for weeks.
The legislator also said that any community more than 35 feet above sea level would not be flooded. So, most of the Island would be safe from the ocean's wrath. This also means there would be places on the Island to which South Shore residents could evacuate. Coch said evacuees would have to find "wind-resistant" structures. He didn't define precisely what wind-resistant meant.
Emergency management officials said that during an evacuation, South Shore residents would be asked to gather at Mitchel Field, in central Nassau. There they would be given instructions on where to go next.
One man wondered why officials could not now say where people should evacuate. The county does not reveal evacuation shelters ahead of time, officials said, because they may have to change on the day of the storm. Officials did say, however, that Nassau Coliseum and schools would likely become shelters, though schools would have to meet certain criteria. They would, for example, be required to have their own generators.
People should also keep in mind that pets aren't generally allowed in shelters.
Officials urged people to create their own evacuation plans if they live in an inundation zone. They suggested that people identify friends and relatives on higher ground with whom they could weather a major hurricane. Staying with people you know would be better than sitting for days or even weeks with thousands of strangers, officials said.
They also said that residents should keep medical supplies, flashlights, canned food and water in their homes at all times.
If South Shore residents are called on to evacuate, they should put together a "grab-and-go bag" right away. The bag should include medicines, medical-alert bracelets, insurance policies, banking and credit card information, emergency contacts, family photos, blankets, clothes, child-care necessities, cell phones, hard-soled shoes, money, pet carriers, food and water for pets, and leashes.
Bill Korbel, News 12's chief meteorologist and a Merrick resident, added that people should consider buying their own generators to at least keep their refrigerators humming if the lights go out.
Finally, officials said, people should evacuate when authorities call on them to do so. If necessary, officials would go door to door before a storm, urging people to leave their homes. But they cannot force people to evacuate, and if people don't leave, there's no way to guarantee their safety, as was clearly seen in New Orleans.
Coch said a "killer" hurricane slams into Long Island about every 90 years. The last one, called the Long Island Express, hit in 1938, 67 years ago. So, Coch said, the Island is coming due for another Big One.
"I urge you not to forget the past," the professor said.
Comments about this story? SBrinton@liherald.com or (516) 569-4000 ext. 203.
