Thursday, October 1, 2026
Economic trends remain solid on Long Island and across most of the United States, yet consumers still seem “unhappy.” Measures of sentiment, both local and national, are more downbeat than some relevant information would suggest.
For example, inflation, as measured in the consumer price index, continues to moderate from the highs of 2022, up 3.3 percent in March nationwide, while our region was up 3.6 percent. Even with higher gas prices likely to fuel an uptick in inflation overall, we’ve been seeing moderating trends.
Even so, the cumulative increase in inflation since early 2017 remains roughly 32 percent. Prices have gone up over the past five years, and consumers haven’t forgotten it, even if the recent trends are more moderate — or even if they temporarily move in the wrong direction.
The perception that prices are still going higher can be partially attributed to what we call the Snickers Bar Effect: Consumers remember the prices of more frequent purchases. Economists at UBS began examining this issue in early 2024, and it remains highly relevant today. In 2020, the popular candy bar cost $1.50, but today it costs $2.39, an increase of nearly 80 percent. Most consumers, however, don’t know how much their car insurance has gone up over the past few years.
We’re all much more aware of the price increases on everyday products, which creates a sense that inflation is still surging. So, even though it has in fact been moderating, most consumers still feel that prices are too high.
For those who don’t scarf down a mix of savory peanuts, caramel and chocolate for breakfast, lunch or a snack several times a week, let’s drill down to a very Long Island-specific product: the bacon, egg and cheese sandwich. Nearly every neighborhood deli or bodega serves it, on a roll or a bagel. Our analysis suggests that in 2015, the average price of a BEC was $3, and in 2020 it was $4.25. Today it’s closer to $7.50. People see the higher prices every morning, which reminds them daily that expenses are higher.
To be clear, it isn’t just Snickers, bacon, egg and cheeses or even overall inflation that weighs on purchasers on Long Island. Data shows that consumers are also worried about possible layoffs, the seeming likelihood of artificial intelligence replacing jobs, and the so-called K-shaped economy, in which high earners thrive while low earners struggle. These concerns are real, even if they aren’t fully showing up in the hard economic data.
Recent survey data reinforces this point. A few months ago, PKF O’Connor Davies, in partnership with the Siena Research Institute, released its annual Long Island Economic Survey–Outlook 2026. Like consumers, Long Island businesses also seem more worried about the economy, even though current trends are solid. Economic sentiment in the survey is the third lowest since 1995.
Even with March housing data showing continued strength and the stock market rebounding dramatically, affordability and inflation for residents of Nassau and Suffolk counties remain issues. If you bought a home five or more years ago, you are sitting on strong price appreciation. But if you’re entering the market today, there aren’t enough reasonably priced alternatives. Entry-level buyers are being squeezed, and affordability remains a major problem. That’s why the Long Island Association and business leaders have been advocating for federal, state and local support for more housing development.
Sentiment matters, because it drives spending, hiring and investment decisions. When consumers and business leaders feel downbeat, they may pull back — even in a relatively solid economy. Until they begin to feel relief in their day-to-day purchases, housing becomes more attainable and there’s less volatility in economic news, that disconnect is likely to persist, even if the numbers continue to tell a more positive story.
Steven Kent is chief economist at the Long Island Association. Comments? Skent@longislandassociation.org.
