It’s time to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war

The war in Ukraine has destabilized and polarized the international order. It pits two nuclear-armed superpowers, the United States and Russia, against each other. Any miscalculation could take all of us to nuclear Armageddon.

The war has created untold human misery. Ending it should be a top priority for humankind. How can it be ended, and on what terms?

Conventional wisdom holds that wars end in one of two ways. Either one side wins and the other loses, or they negotiate a peace agreement by coming to an understanding that both sides can live with. The Russian invasion of Ukraine currently looks like a stalemate, with little territory having been won or lost last year and both sides seemingly adhering to a position requiring total victory.

Russia seems to be playing the long game of waiting out the resolve of the West to fund and support Ukraine. Sanctions on Russia have had an effect, but it still sells oil to China, India, and much of the world.

Ukraine’s goal is to regain its lost territory, maintain its current territory and achieve security against future invasions. Russia wants to control all of Ukraine, and wants to prevent it from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The question is, can a peace agreement be made that both sides can live with?

Countries at war start to look for alternatives when victory is no longer assured, or likely. This war has reached that point. Negotiations give countries options in a no-win situation. Are the parties ready to negotiate?

Peace agreements are reached by making a win-win deal in which both sides get something they want out of it. Of course, they need to compromise and give up some things as well.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is obviously a key to any peace deal, because he must be willing to negotiate and implement any agreement that is reached. The other key is Ukraine, whose territory has been invaded, occupied and annexed by Russia.

The “deciders” will be Russia (essentially Putin) and Ukraine (the administration of Volodymyr Zelensky). They will be the ones with representatives at the negotiating table. Beyond the table, there are other influencers, such as those who support Ukraine with arms and funding — the European Union and the United States. And there are those who tacitly support Russia by continuing commerce with Putin, and by not voting in the United Nations to sanction Russia.

If an understanding and peace settlement is to be reached between the combatants, we must consider what institution is most capable of facilitating the necessary negotiations. The U.N. is the logical party for this task because, according to its charter, its goal is to “prevent the scourge of war.”

Unfortunately, the U.N. Security Council is hobbled by the fact that Russia and the other great powers that emerged victorious in World War II – the United States, France, the United Kingdom and China – exercise veto power. And Russia has vetoed Security Council action in connection with the Ukraine war.

The International Court of Justice was foreseen by the U.N. Charter as the primary method of resolution of disputes between countries, offering law as an alternative to war. But laws need enforcement, and the ICJ has none. Its order that Russia “immediately suspend” military operations in Ukraine nearly two years ago was utterly ignored.

But this doesn’t prevent the U.N. secretary-general, António Guterres, from organizing serious peace negotiations. The role of the secretary-general is that of chief diplomat for all nations. He is charged with mediation and appointment of envoys to broker peace agreements. In getting such negotiations off the ground, Guterres might find it useful to draw on countries such as China or Turkey, both of which have a rapport with Putin.

The United Nations, the world’s largest and most important international peace organization, is the logical place to organize these negotiations. It must also move forward with reforming the Security Council, thereby ending its paralysis when it comes to enforcing world peace and security.

We can move from war to law by reforming and strengthening the United Nations, but it will take some creative thinking and action by all of us.

Jerry Tetalman is co-author of “One World Democracy” (Origin Press) and a board member of Citizens for Global Solutions Education Fund.